In 2018, Derrick Henry went from nearly getting cut to being considered one of the NFL’s top running backs. In 2019, he finished first in rushing yards, but the most impressive thing about Henry’s 2019 season was his postseason performance, first against New England, then against Baltimore. Now, Henry will look to become one of the highest paid NFL running backs, as he enters the 2020 offseason as a free agent. Is Henry worth the massive contract he is projected to receive, or should NFL teams stay away.
It is not easy to argue against Henry’s potential. He showed in 2019 that he can be a true workhorse and the focal point of an offense. The Titans barely had to pass the ball before facing Kansas City in the playoffs - that’s how dominant Henry was.
While Henry was an absolute force out of the backfield in 2019, a lot of credit should go to his offensive line. Tennessee’s offensive line ranked fourth in run blocking according to Football Outsiders. The Titans’ star studded offensive line has three time pro bowler Taylor Lewan, and one time first team all pro Jack Conklin. The problem is, both these players are free agents this offseason just like Henry, and it will not be easy for the Titans to bring all three players back, so will Henry be as productive without his two star offensive linemen? There is no way of knowing now, but even the best running backs struggle with a subpar offensive lineman such as Le’Veon Bell with the Jets or DeMarco Murray with the Eagles.
Paying running backs is risky to say the least. They can get injured on any given play, they age quickly, and they are very often less responsible for their success than some might think.
Let’s take a look at the three highest paid running backs going into the 2020 NFL season. First is Todd Gurley at $17.25M. Gurley had his least impressive season yet in 2019, which many blame on his knee problems. He is only 25 years old and already showing signs of regression. Second is Le’Veon Bell at $15.5M. Bell was signed by the Jets after a year-long holdout with the Steelers. Bell relied heavily on his offensive line in Pittsburgh, and his name is now coming up in trade talks only a year after signing his deal. Third is David Johnson at $14.16M. Johnson was signed to a $39M deal in 2018, but never lived up to expectations, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry in 2018 and 2019. There is now talk of the Cardinals either trading or cutting Johnson to free up some cap space. It is safe to say these three players do not deserve what they’re paid, and the teams most likely regret paying these players so much money.
Derrick Henry is an interesting case because he has shown he can be more dominant than any of the players mentioned above. The guy had three straight games with over 180 yards, and two of them were playoff games. He breaks almost every tackle from a defensive back and has solid closing speed for his size. However, there is another flaw with Henry. Powerful bruising backs like Derrick Henry usually do a nice job holding onto the ball, but Henry fumbled five times in 2019, which ranked second among running backs.
Henry had everything a young running back could ask for last season. He had a productive offensive line, a coach who was willing to run the ball more than most, and an unorthodox running style, which made it much more difficult for even the best defenses to stop him. We won’t know whether or not Henry can produce at a similar level without the tools he had this season, but the odds are stacked against him. If I was an NFL general manager, I would avoid making Henry the highest paid back in the league, but he is a guy who will fill the stands because of his name. Paying Henry may not be the best move for a franchise looking to make a superbowl run, but he would be a good move for an owner trying to fill a stadium.