Ray Lewis once said “80% of games are won and lost in the trenches,” and while this is most likely just an assumption rather than a statement which can be supported by actual statistics, it is the belief of many NFL legends and analysts. What Ray Lewis meant by this quote is whichever team wins the line of scrimmage will usually win the game, which is one of the reasons we see offensive linemen and defensive linemen become very rich in free agency. It is not easy to find a consistent, durable, disciplined lineman in the NFL, so when a team finds a real franchise lineman on either side of the ball, they are a top priority to lock down for the future.
One of the reasons NFL teams struggle with finding quality offensive and defensive linemen is because there are not many stats to accurately grade them. We often turn to sacks in order to grade a defensive lineman. A player with 15 sacks is going to get a lot more attention from the media than a guy with 5 sacks, even if the guy with 5 sacks pressured the quarterback at the same rate and played less snaps. The statistics used to grade linemen, especially on the defensive side, get complicated because the overwhelming majority of people are only going to pay attention to sacks. However, the fact is that sacks are not a great representation of how productive a defensive lineman is in the pass game.
I have found that the most reliable statistic when it comes to grading pass rushers is pass rush win rate. This is the rate at which a pass rusher wins his matchup in under 2.5 seconds. When trying to grade pass rushers, this value will give a much better representation of the effectiveness of a pass rusher.
Let’s use Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence as an example. Lawrence has been a solid pass rusher for a few seasons now, but seemed to fall off in 2019, recording only 5 sacks, a surprisingly low number compared to his last two seasons when he had 14.5 and 10.5. On the surface, this seems like a down year for Lawrence, but he was much more productive as a pass rusher than one might expect. Lawrence recorded a pass rush win rate of .27, meaning 27% of the time, he won his matchup in 2.5 seconds or less. This number ranked third among all edge rushers in 2019, but in sacks, Lawrence ranked outside the top 25.
Now, let’s compare Demarcus Lawrence to someone who had what most would consider a career year. Arizona Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones totaled a remarkable 19 sacks in 2019, making his case for defensive player of the year. Jones should not have even been in the conversation for defensive player of the year, and here’s why. Jones recorded a pass rush win rate of .19 this season, ranking 18th among edge rushers. Even players who are considered to be mediocre like Jerry Hughes, Preston Smith, and Matthew Judon posted better pass rush win rates. The thing is, these guys didn’t have close to as many sacks as Jones, so they don’t get the credit they deserve.
Finishing on a play is important, but a pass rusher getting a sack five or six seconds after the ball is snapped has the same value as a sack in the first 2 seconds of the ball being snapped. A pass rusher who can win his matchup a fourth of the time is much more valuable than a pass rusher who ranks outside the top ten in pass rush win rate, no matter how many sacks they have. Demarcus Lawrence received heavy criticism for his performance this season, but the fact is, he had a solid season even though it didn’t show on the score sheet. Grading a defensive lineman is much more complicated than just looking at sacks, so look further than just sacks before making an assumption about a defensive lineman.