The LA Chargers were able to lock down restricted free agent running back Austin Ekeler for the future with a four year deal worth $24.5M. This equates to about $6.125M average per year, which is not much for a running back of Ekeler’s caliber, which makes this contract an absolute steal for the Chargers. We have seen teams make mistakes signing running backs to big contracts several times over the past couple years. The Rams made Todd Gurley the highest paid back in 2018, a move they would soon regret, as Gurley is already showing signs of regression. The Jets and the Cardinals made similar moves, both paying runningbacks about $13M per year for four years, and both having underwhelming performances after the contracts were signed. It seems that whenever a running back gets paid, he immediately falls off. Running backs are taking hits every play, and it is only a matter of time before a starting running back goes down with an injury. The Chargers avoided making an expensive long term commitment to one player, and still were able to keep a talented running back.
Ekeler was one of my favorite free agent backs because we haven’t seen him take on a leading role in an offense, but he has been extremely productive with the ball in his hands. Ekeler totaled 557 rushing yards on only 132 carries, which is nothing crazy, but Ekeler’s real production came in the pass game. Ekeler ranked number two in receiving yards among running backs in 2019 with 993 yards on 92 receptions. He would have ranked first in receiving yards among running backs in any of the past 5 years, but Christain McCaffery had over 1,000 receiving yards last year, so Ekeler was second. However, Ekeler had more yards per reception than McCaffery and double the receiving touchdowns. Ekeler also had the lowest drop percentage of all running backs with more than 60 targets, dropping only 1% passes.
It is extremely difficult for a running back to contribute to an offense when the offensive line is not helping them out. When a team is struggling to run the ball with a talented running back, they often try to get the back involved through the pass game, so it is important for a running back to be a solid pass catcher in the NFL because when the run game is not productive, offenses often turn to the pass game. The Chargers offensive line in 2019 was average at best. Pro Football Focus ranked them as the 29th best offensive line in the league, ahead of only the Dolphins, the Rams, and the Bengals. However, even though his offensive line was mediocre, Ekeler was still able to put up some great numbers. The point is, even if the offensive line is not great, Ekeler can still be productive. He led the league in broken tackle percentage of anyone with more than 100 carries with over 25%. Even when the blocks were not good, he was still able to gain yards. Ekeler was able to put up over 1,500 scrimmage yards in 2019 with a bad offensive line, so in theory, he will be even more productive with a better offensive line.
The contract Ekeler signed is not risky at all for the Chargers. Even if Ekeler turns out to have a down year in 2020, they are only losing a maximum amount of $6.125M for the year, which may sound like a lot, but it is only about 3% of their total salary cap space.
The deal can be put into perspective by being compared to other running backs currently under contract. Texans running back Lamar Miller makes an average of $6.5M per year. Miller missed the entire 2019 season with injury, and hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season since 2016. 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon is paid an average of $7.5M per year on his current contract, but has never totaled more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his career and has not played a game since 2017. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman averages $8.25M per year on his current contract, but has not had more than 1,500 scrimmage yards since 2016 and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in 2019. Even if Ekeler doesn’t have another career year in 2020, the Chargers really are not losing much money. Ekeler has shown no signs of slowing down, and I expect him to be as good or better next year. He has only missed two games in three years, and his production has increased every year since he came into the league in 2017. I love this move from the Chargers, and I do not think it is one they will regret.