My Favorite Free Agent of the 2020 NFL Offseason [Billy Stephens]

My favorite 2020 non-quarterback free agent may surprise you. It isn’t Derrick Henry, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, or even Jadaveon Clowney. It is New England Patriots offensive guard Joe Thuney.

Thuney has been a force on the Patriots offensive line, a group that allowed the least sacks in the NFL in 2018 and third least in 2019. Thuney is expected to test free agency this offseason, and will draw attention from several teams. As for his market value, he should be expected to make somewhere between $12-14M per year. Dallas Cowboys offensive guard Zack Martin is currently the highest paid at his position in the league, making an average of $14M per year on his contract.

Thuney is not the most appealing free agent to most fans, which may cause owners to avoid him, but it is not easy to find an offensive lineman who consistently performs at such a high level.

As a fan of the NFL, one of my biggest pet peeves is penalties. It doesn’t get much worse than having a big play being wiped out by a holding penalty, or a false start on a crucial third down. Thuney went the entire 2019 season without committing one penalty. Like I said before, grading offensive linemen is not an easy thing to do, but it doesn’t matter how talented you are if you’re committing a penalty in every game, and penalties most often come from offensive linemen. In addition to never committing a penalty, Thuney allowed only one sack all season, while his offensive line allowed 28 as a whole. Without Thuney, the Patriots offensive line would have mediocre at best.

Getting a player like Thuney can boost an entire offense. He can take on the best pass rushers in the league with confidence, and help establish the run. Pro Football Focus ranked Thuney fifth among offensive guards overall and third in pass protection. His biggest competition in free agency is Washington Redskins offensive guard Brandon Scherff. Scherff is probably the better run blocker, but durability is one of the most important factors when it comes to offensive linemen and Scherff has missed 15 games in five years, while Thuney has missed zero in four years.

Amari Cooper and Derrick Henry may be scoring touchdowns on Sundays, but games are most often won and lost at the line of scrimmage. Not to mention that both Cooper and Henry had top five offensive lines last season according to Football Outsiders. Eight out of the top nine offensive lines in the 2019 season were from teams that made the playoffs, proving my point that the offensive line is much more important to a successful NFL team than a star running back or a big name receiver. Thuney will get a huge contract in March, but if he continues to perform at the level he did in 2019, it will be worth every penny.

Worst Contracts in the NFL [Billy Stephens]

As the free agency period of the NFL year quickly approaches, I want to take a look at some expensive contracts NFL teams probably regret offering. Here are my four worst contracts in the NFL (in no particular order).

Player - Trumaine Johnson

Team - NY Jets

Position - Cornerback

Contract - $72.5M/5 years

Average cap hit per year - $14.5M

Johnson was drafted by the Rams in 2012, and by the end of his rookie contract, the Rams were not sure if they wanted to make a long term commitment and offer Johnson an extension. He was asking to be the highest paid corner in the league and the Rams were not sure if they wanted to pay him. He played both the 2016 and 2017 seasons on a franchise tag before being signed by the Jets during the 2018 offseason. Johnson has been disappointing so far in New York. He had three total pass defenses over the past two seasons with the Jets, compared to 34 in three seasons with the Rams. During his time with the Rams, Johnson was good not great, so when the Jets offered him this deal, they were taking a risk, and at this point, it seems like they messed up big time.

Player - Xavier Rhodes

Team - Minnesota Vikings

Position - Cornerback

Contract - $70.1M/5 years

Average cap hit per year - $14.02M

Rhodes signed a 5 year contract extension to his rookie deal back in 2017. He played well during his contract year in 2016, totaling 5 interceptions and allowing a 48.6% completion percentage, which is similar to what Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey allowed in 2019. However, his production has only gone downhill since then. Rhodes was still productive in 2017, but his numbers continued to get worse. Since 2016, he has not had more than 2 interceptions or allowed a completion percentage of lower than 50%. In 2019, Rhodes had one of the worst seasons I have ever seen from a corner. He allowed a 75% completion percentage and 9.5 yards per target. Pro Football Focus ranked Rhodes #107 of 133 eligible cornerbacks in 2019. Rhodes is under contract until the 2022 offseason and is set to have a cap hit of $12.9M in 2020. The Vikings could opt to cut Rhodes, which would cause them to absorb $7.2M in dead cap, but save a total of $33.7M over the next three seasons.

Player - Nick Foles

Team - Jacksonville Jaguars

Position - Quarterback

Contract - $88M/4 years

Average cap hit per year - $22M

After reviving his career by winning superbowl MVP by defeating Tom Brady and the Patriots, Foles stayed with the Eagles for one more year to be Carson Wentz’s backup. He then went into the 2019 offseason as an unrestricted free agent, ultimately signing with the Jaguars to an $88M deal. He was supposed Jacksonville’s franchise quarterback for the next 4 years, but Foles spent most of the 2019 season injured, and did not look good when he played. It is only a matter of time before Foles is permanently replaced by young quarterback Gardner Minshew, who showed great potential last season, but in the meantime, the Jaguars are stuck with this massive deal. Foles is set to have a $22M cap hit in 2020, $26.8M in 2021, and $27M in 2022

Player - Nate Solder

Team - New York Giants

Position - Tackle

Contract - $62M/4 years

Average cap hit per year - $15.5M

Solder signed with the Giants in 2018 after several productive years with the Patriots. The year before he signed with the Giants, he did not have a good season, totaling 29 blown blocks, and letting up 6 sacks. He had his worst year of his career in 2019, totaling 39 blown blocks and letting up 14 sacks, which is just horrible considering the fact that the Giants had a rookie quarterback last season. Solder is set to have a cap hit of $19.5M in 2020 and $20.5M in 2021

Thoughts on Austin Ekeler's new contract [Billy Stephens]

The LA Chargers were able to lock down restricted free agent running back Austin Ekeler for the future with a four year deal worth $24.5M. This equates to about $6.125M average per year, which is not much for a running back of Ekeler’s caliber, which makes this contract an absolute steal for the Chargers. We have seen teams make mistakes signing running backs to big contracts several times over the past couple years. The Rams made Todd Gurley the highest paid back in 2018, a move they would soon regret, as Gurley is already showing signs of regression. The Jets and the Cardinals made similar moves, both paying runningbacks about $13M per year for four years, and both having underwhelming performances after the contracts were signed. It seems that whenever a running back gets paid, he immediately falls off. Running backs are taking hits every play, and it is only a matter of time before a starting running back goes down with an injury. The Chargers avoided making an expensive long term commitment to one player, and still were able to keep a talented running back.

Ekeler was one of my favorite free agent backs because we haven’t seen him take on a leading role in an offense, but he has been extremely productive with the ball in his hands. Ekeler totaled 557 rushing yards on only 132 carries, which is nothing crazy, but Ekeler’s real production came in the pass game. Ekeler ranked number two in receiving yards among running backs in 2019 with 993 yards on 92 receptions. He would have ranked first in receiving yards among running backs in any of the past 5 years, but Christain McCaffery had over 1,000 receiving yards last year, so Ekeler was second. However, Ekeler had more yards per reception than McCaffery and double the receiving touchdowns. Ekeler also had the lowest drop percentage of all running backs with more than 60 targets, dropping only 1% passes.

It is extremely difficult for a running back to contribute to an offense when the offensive line is not helping them out. When a team is struggling to run the ball with a talented running back, they often try to get the back involved through the pass game, so it is important for a running back to be a solid pass catcher in the NFL because when the run game is not productive, offenses often turn to the pass game. The Chargers offensive line in 2019 was average at best. Pro Football Focus ranked them as the 29th best offensive line in the league, ahead of only the Dolphins, the Rams, and the Bengals. However, even though his offensive line was mediocre, Ekeler was still able to put up some great numbers. The point is, even if the offensive line is not great, Ekeler can still be productive. He led the league in broken tackle percentage of anyone with more than 100 carries with over 25%. Even when the blocks were not good, he was still able to gain yards. Ekeler was able to put up over 1,500 scrimmage yards in 2019 with a bad offensive line, so in theory, he will be even more productive with a better offensive line.

The contract Ekeler signed is not risky at all for the Chargers. Even if Ekeler turns out to have a down year in 2020, they are only losing a maximum amount of $6.125M for the year, which may sound like a lot, but it is only about 3% of their total salary cap space.

The deal can be put into perspective by being compared to other running backs currently under contract. Texans running back Lamar Miller makes an average of $6.5M per year. Miller missed the entire 2019 season with injury, and hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season since 2016. 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon is paid an average of $7.5M per year on his current contract, but has never totaled more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his career and has not played a game since 2017. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman averages $8.25M per year on his current contract, but has not had more than 1,500 scrimmage yards since 2016 and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in 2019. Even if Ekeler doesn’t have another career year in 2020, the Chargers really are not losing much money. Ekeler has shown no signs of slowing down, and I expect him to be as good or better next year. He has only missed two games in three years, and his production has increased every year since he came into the league in 2017. I love this move from the Chargers, and I do not think it is one they will regret.

Are Sacks Overrated [Billy Stephens]

Ray Lewis once said “80% of games are won and lost in the trenches,” and while this is most likely just an assumption rather than a statement which can be supported by actual statistics, it is the belief of many NFL legends and analysts. What Ray Lewis meant by this quote is whichever team wins the line of scrimmage will usually win the game, which is one of the reasons we see offensive linemen and defensive linemen become very rich in free agency. It is not easy to find a consistent, durable, disciplined lineman in the NFL, so when a team finds a real franchise lineman on either side of the ball, they are a top priority to lock down for the future.

One of the reasons NFL teams struggle with finding quality offensive and defensive linemen is because there are not many stats to accurately grade them. We often turn to sacks in order to grade a defensive lineman. A player with 15 sacks is going to get a lot more attention from the media than a guy with 5 sacks, even if the guy with 5 sacks pressured the quarterback at the same rate and played less snaps. The statistics used to grade linemen, especially on the defensive side, get complicated because the overwhelming majority of people are only going to pay attention to sacks. However, the fact is that sacks are not a great representation of how productive a defensive lineman is in the pass game.

I have found that the most reliable statistic when it comes to grading pass rushers is pass rush win rate. This is the rate at which a pass rusher wins his matchup in under 2.5 seconds. When trying to grade pass rushers, this value will give a much better representation of the effectiveness of a pass rusher.

Let’s use Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence as an example. Lawrence has been a solid pass rusher for a few seasons now, but seemed to fall off in 2019, recording only 5 sacks, a surprisingly low number compared to his last two seasons when he had 14.5 and 10.5. On the surface, this seems like a down year for Lawrence, but he was much more productive as a pass rusher than one might expect. Lawrence recorded a pass rush win rate of .27, meaning 27% of the time, he won his matchup in 2.5 seconds or less. This number ranked third among all edge rushers in 2019, but in sacks, Lawrence ranked outside the top 25.

Now, let’s compare Demarcus Lawrence to someone who had what most would consider a career year. Arizona Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones totaled a remarkable 19 sacks in 2019, making his case for defensive player of the year. Jones should not have even been in the conversation for defensive player of the year, and here’s why. Jones recorded a pass rush win rate of .19 this season, ranking 18th among edge rushers. Even players who are considered to be mediocre like Jerry Hughes, Preston Smith, and Matthew Judon posted better pass rush win rates. The thing is, these guys didn’t have close to as many sacks as Jones, so they don’t get the credit they deserve.

Finishing on a play is important, but a pass rusher getting a sack five or six seconds after the ball is snapped has the same value as a sack in the first 2 seconds of the ball being snapped. A pass rusher who can win his matchup a fourth of the time is much more valuable than a pass rusher who ranks outside the top ten in pass rush win rate, no matter how many sacks they have. Demarcus Lawrence received heavy criticism for his performance this season, but the fact is, he had a solid season even though it didn’t show on the score sheet. Grading a defensive lineman is much more complicated than just looking at sacks, so look further than just sacks before making an assumption about a defensive lineman.

Derek Carr is not the problem in Las Vegas [Billy Stephens]

One of the discussions of the 2020 NFL offseason is whether or not the Las Vegas Raiders should go a different direction at the quarterback position, or in other words, move away from Derek Carr. Just two years after Carr was drafted, the Raiders had a 12-4 season and made the playoffs. They ended up losing to the Texans in the wildcard round, but the future looked bright in Oakland. They had a quarterback who threw 28 touchdowns and nearly 4,000 yards, as well as a young defensive star in Khalil Mack and a promising young receiver in Amari Cooper. After a disappointing season in 2017, the front office thought it was time for a coaching change, which is when they hired John Gruden. Gruden traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for draft picks, and left Carr without the offensive weapons he needed. The Raiders have not yet returned to their success we saw in 2016, and some think Carr is holding them back, but I disagree. I actually think Carr has improved and still has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL.

Carr made the best of a bad situation in 2019, putting together a solid season considering the limited offensive weapons he had in 2019. His best receivers were Hunter Renfro and Tyrell Williams, neither of whom had more than 700 yards receiving. Willimas is a solid deep threat, and productive in the red zone, but that is about it. He is not a great route runner, which limits his versatility. Renfrow and Williams both dropped more than 9% of their passes, which is obviously not good for a quarterback, but there is nothing Carr can do about his receivers dropping passes. Neither of these two guys were legitimate number one options in 2019. Renfrow may become that guy in the future, but he was not last year.

The most surprising element of the Raiders offense last season was Darren Waller, their breakout star at tight end. Waller had over 1,000 receiving yards, and played a vital role in the Raiders run game last year. However, there is only so much a tight end can do for a quarterback. He is a number one option, but it makes it much more difficult for an offense to be successful when the only receiving threat is a tight end. It isn’t very difficult for a defense to shut down a tight end when that’s all they have to do, but when there is even one threat on the outside, the defense can’t completely commit to neutralizing a tight end. Waller is a star and there is no question about that, but Carr needs more than just him to make his offense good enough to compete.

Carr’s stats have taken a hit over the past few seasons, but he still puts up good numbers considering the weapons he has on offense. He has passed for 4,000 yards in both of his last two seasons and posted the best QBR of his career in 2019 at 100.8. His 21 touchdowns was the second lowest of his career, but Josh Jacobs was getting the ball on the goal line most of the time, which definitely caused Carr’s passing touchdowns to take a hit. Pro Football Focus graded Carr 11th among quarterbacks with a 79.9, the second best grade of his career. While I often disagree with ratings from Pro Football Focus, they do watch every snap from every game in order to determine a player’s grade, so they are somewhat reliable. As for the more traditional quarterback statistics, Carr’s had career highs in passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt in 2019, while ranking second in completion percentage, and eighth in passing yards.

The Kansas City Chiefs just won the superbowl, and while Patrick Mahomes is one of the most talented quarterbacks we have ever seen, he had no shortage of offensive weapons this past season. When your receiving corps includes Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce, it is safe to say your job as the quarterback becomes easier. If the Chiefs hadn’t signed Watkins or drafted Hardman, maybe the 49ers defense would have been able to stop Mahomes, or maybe the Chiefs wouldn’t have made it to the superbowl at all. The point is, the Kansas City front office has done a terrific job providing Mahomes with the weapons he needs to be successful. We can’t make a judgement on Carr based on a couple seasons when he has not been in the best situation.

The Raiders currently hold the #12 overall pick in the draft, and it would be surprising if both Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are already off the board. This is one of the deepest receiver classes we have ever seen, so even if Las Vegas can’t land Lamb or Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III is also a viable option at #12, and there will still be talent at the receiver position into the second and third rounds. The Raiders have an opportunity to provide Carr with another weapon for this offense, assuming they stick with him into the 2020 season. I’m surprised there is even talk about the Raiders moving on from Carr, and if they do decide to sign someone else or draft a young quarterback, I would not be surprised if Carr finds success somewhere else. It’s still too early to just give up on Carr, and I think he has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in this league moving forward.

How Much $$ Should Derrick Henry Make? [Billy Stephens]

In 2018, Derrick Henry went from nearly getting cut to being considered one of the NFL’s top running backs. In 2019, he finished first in rushing yards, but the most impressive thing about Henry’s 2019 season was his postseason performance, first against New England, then against Baltimore. Now, Henry will look to become one of the highest paid NFL running backs, as he enters the 2020 offseason as a free agent. Is Henry worth the massive contract he is projected to receive, or should NFL teams stay away.

It is not easy to argue against Henry’s potential. He showed in 2019 that he can be a true workhorse and the focal point of an offense. The Titans barely had to pass the ball before facing Kansas City in the playoffs - that’s how dominant Henry was.

While Henry was an absolute force out of the backfield in 2019, a lot of credit should go to his offensive line. Tennessee’s offensive line ranked fourth in run blocking according to Football Outsiders. The Titans’ star studded offensive line has three time pro bowler Taylor Lewan, and one time first team all pro Jack Conklin. The problem is, both these players are free agents this offseason just like Henry, and it will not be easy for the Titans to bring all three players back, so will Henry be as productive without his two star offensive linemen? There is no way of knowing now, but even the best running backs struggle with a subpar offensive lineman such as Le’Veon Bell with the Jets or DeMarco Murray with the Eagles.

Paying running backs is risky to say the least. They can get injured on any given play, they age quickly, and they are very often less responsible for their success than some might think.

Let’s take a look at the three highest paid running backs going into the 2020 NFL season. First is Todd Gurley at $17.25M. Gurley had his least impressive season yet in 2019, which many blame on his knee problems. He is only 25 years old and already showing signs of regression. Second is Le’Veon Bell at $15.5M. Bell was signed by the Jets after a year-long holdout with the Steelers. Bell relied heavily on his offensive line in Pittsburgh, and his name is now coming up in trade talks only a year after signing his deal. Third is David Johnson at $14.16M. Johnson was signed to a $39M deal in 2018, but never lived up to expectations, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry in 2018 and 2019. There is now talk of the Cardinals either trading or cutting Johnson to free up some cap space. It is safe to say these three players do not deserve what they’re paid, and the teams most likely regret paying these players so much money.

Derrick Henry is an interesting case because he has shown he can be more dominant than any of the players mentioned above. The guy had three straight games with over 180 yards, and two of them were playoff games. He breaks almost every tackle from a defensive back and has solid closing speed for his size. However, there is another flaw with Henry. Powerful bruising backs like Derrick Henry usually do a nice job holding onto the ball, but Henry fumbled five times in 2019, which ranked second among running backs.

Henry had everything a young running back could ask for last season. He had a productive offensive line, a coach who was willing to run the ball more than most, and an unorthodox running style, which made it much more difficult for even the best defenses to stop him. We won’t know whether or not Henry can produce at a similar level without the tools he had this season, but the odds are stacked against him. If I was an NFL general manager, I would avoid making Henry the highest paid back in the league, but he is a guy who will fill the stands because of his name. Paying Henry may not be the best move for a franchise looking to make a superbowl run, but he would be a good move for an owner trying to fill a stadium.

Could Moneyball work in the NFL? [Jackson Krueger]

Could moneyball work in the NFL? Well first, what is moneyball? For one thing it's a movie staring Brad Pitt (It's also a book but I don't read so I don't care). The film and book were based on Billy Beane, a front office executive of the Oakland Athletics. The A's are a small market baseball team and so it's significantly more difficult for them to have success, given that a team like the Yankees can spend nearly 3 times as much on MLB players payroll then Oakland could.

So Beane got to work to find players who had a greater value than their general perception. One example is while most GM's would use batting average, Beane would instead use on base percentage, a stat that takes things like walks into account. Because at the end of the day as long as you're getting on base it doesn't really matter how you got there. So while a player hitting .240 with an on base percentage of .260 with 20 home runs might demand 8 million dollars, a similar player hitting .200 with an on base percentage of .260 and 20 home runs would only demand 2 million. So in signing the second guy you get the same value, but save 6 million dollars.

So could Moneyball work in the NFL? Well first you'd have to find some overvalued or undervalued statistics commonly used in front offices. One example of this is with kickers. Take a team like the Jets, they pretty much neglected the kicking position this past offseason, and it showed, as they had one of the worst field goal percentages in the NFL last year. They as a whole went 19/28 on field goals, and 23/27 on extra point attempts. Now lets compare that to Justin Tucker. While it's unfair to compare anything to Justin Tucker given how great he is, you'll see in a second why I'm bringing him up...

If you take Tuckers career kicking percentages for each distance (such as 20-29 or 30-39) and then look at how many attempts the Jets made from those distances in 2019, assuming Tucker had a typical year by his standards, he would've gone 24/28 and perfect on extra points. meaning he would've added 19 points to the Jets in 2019. Which means If Tucker was wearing a Jets uniform last season he would've added 1.1875 points per game, which using my own personnel stat "points added per 30 snaps", having Justin Tucker instead of what the New York jets had at the kicking position is about the same as having Jimmy Garoppolo over C.J. Beathard. In fact, it's a little better. But while Jimmy G is making 27,500,000 a year, Tucker is making just 5,000,000.

Now this is a bit misleading, because honestly the main goal as a GM when talking about the kicking position is to just avoid being a team that sucks at kicking. When it comes to field goal percentage, the difference between 1 and 16 is a lot closer than 17 and 32. But that being said one way to guarantee you don't suck at kicking would be to sign a top tier kicker to a 10 million dollar a year contract, and it would be a good move.

But that's honestly one example. NFL teams for the longest time wouldn't trade away a star player out of fear they wouldn't be able to replace them. But with teams like the Raiders and Dolphins trading Mack and Tunsil to get draft picks back, they're able to speed up their own rebuilding process. Bill Belichick for years has had success by instead of building a defensive line first, he would build a strong secondary, and trust that he can get pressure to the quarterback through scheme. He gave Stephon Gilmore 13 million a year, which at the time many called an overpay, but Gilmore just won defensive player of the year, and there's 46 NFL players who make more than him on defense alone.

You could even look at the Baltimore Ravens, Many passed on Lamar Jackson because they felt he could only play in a specific system. But John Harbaugh felt that a system with Jackson could result in a ton of success, and they were able to get him with a late 1st round pick. Patrick mahomes is another great example, as many wrote him off since he played in a college system that usually doesn't translate to the NFL, which allowed Kansas City to trade up to get him.

While some might argue that these aren't all moneyball decisions, remember what the definition of moneyball is. It's finding a player or tactic that is undervalued, and exploiting it. Even if it doesn't have anything to do with money it can still be moneyball. But there's one main problem with moneyball, Football is the most judgmental sport there is. Half of NFL head coaches/GMs are simply just trying to not get fired. Even though you statistically would score more points if you went for 2 every time, when Mike Tomlin did it in a regular season game against Dallas he was highly criticized. So if a less respected coach did that, it might cost them their job, despite it being the correct decision. The reality is, there's one more factor in pulling off moneyball. You have to have the balls to actually do it. Doug Peterson famously said that "conservative coaches go 8-8" and it's true. the fact they he constantly went for it on 4th down gave Philadelphia a huge edge in the 2017 season, which resulted in a Super Bowl victory. Anybody can come up with a good idea, but are you going to be the one to actually pay a kicker 10 million?